Democrats have been telling us for months and months that the ‘blue wave’ is coming. They claim that the whole country hates Trump and can’t wait to vote Democrats back in power this fall. They are beginning to sound a lot like they sounded in the final weeks of the 2016 presidential race. They were sure Hillary had it in the bag and we all know how that worked out for her.
Historically, the party not in power almost always does well. But, you can throw the history books out when it comes to Trump and the way he has energized the Republican Party. The fact of the matter is there are plenty of reasons to believe that Republicans will do much better than the talking heads at CNN are predicting.
Take this latest round of polling for example.
From Fox News:
A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment.
There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed. Compared to early September, the number of Republicans feeling “extremely” interested in the upcoming election is up by 2 points in Arizona, up by 9 points in Indiana, up 8 points in both Missouri and North Dakota, and up 11 points in Tennessee. In each state, Republicans are now just as likely as Democrats to say they are extremely interested — erasing an edge Democrats had in several states last month.
Races all across the board are getting tighter and Republicans are gaining ground.
They look strong in Indiana.
They look strong in Missouri.
They look strong in North Dakota.
Three very winnable races that Democrats could easily lose.
Republicans clearly have momentum especially with this Kavanaugh situation.
Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.
The parity in Republicans’ and Democrats’ favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama’s election as president in November 2008. Republicans have usually been rated less positively than Democrats over this time, with the Republican Party’s favorability rating for the last decade averaging 39%, compared with the Democratic Party’s 44%.
Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.
Don’t count the Republicans out. Very possible they could keep control of the House and gain ground in the Senate.